CMHC – 2nd quarter 2010 outlook



Alberta’s economy is expected to improve in 2010 followed by more growth in 2011. Higher oil prices will see new projects starting. The natural gas industry will soften the expansion as a result of low natural gas prices. Overall, investment intentions in Alberta are projected to be higher by three per cent in 2010.

Labour market conditions are expected to improve this year as the economy gains traction.

The net losses from inter-provincial migration and non-permanent residents experienced in the latter part of 2009 are expected to moderate in 2010. International migration is expected to remain robust this year and next year. Net migration is expected to contribute to population growth in 2010 and 2011 which will support housing demand.

In Detail

Single Starts: Single-detached starts bottomed in 2009 and are expected to rise in both 2010 and 2011. In 2010, starts will rebound, as builders respond to rising demand and lower inventories. Relatively low mortgage rates in 2010 and move-up buying will also help construction activity. Starts will move higher in 2011 with the expanding economy.

Multiple Starts: Multi-family starts will continue to be held back by a muted level of high rise apartment condominium construction. The number of complete and unoccupied multi-family units remains elevated but a peak should soon arrive with inventory levels expected to gradually decline over the forecast period. After a sharp reduction in multifamily starts last year, activity will increase in 2010 but remain modest. The recovery of multi-family starts will continue in 2011 supported by declining inventory levels.

Resales: Homebuyers responded to low mortgage rates and an improved economic outlook by rapidly increasing resale volumes in early 2010. Some demand has been brought forward by those consumers wanting to take advantage of current market conditions. By year-end, resale volumes in 2010 will be similar to the annual volumes in 2009, with single digit growth in 2011.

Prices: Growth in average existing home prices will moderate slightly in the third and fourth quarters of 2010 refl ecting more balanced market conditions due to modest sales and a rising supply of homes listed for sale. Average prices will grow by 3.3 per cent in 2011.

View the entire CMHC report here.

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3 Responses to CMHC – 2nd quarter 2010 outlook

  1. Nemanja says:

    I have a question for condos, a 2 bedroom condo with 2 bathroom 1180sq/ft was bough in 2008 at 430,000 and now it’s worth the same 429,000 on mls what could be the potential rise in spring summer 2011, 3%?

  2. I’m assuming you purchased in Eagle Ridge, in ‘The Peaks’

    The biggest factor right now affecting your resaleablity, is the extra competition ie: new construction, on the market. Centron just released ‘The Vistas’ on Sparrowhawk, there are still some units in ‘The Peaks’ and ‘The Summits’ still remaining.
    Interest rates are another factor that will determine the saleability. Obviously the lower the banks’ interest rates are, the more buyers will be in the market. The opposite is equally true. If interest rates start to creep up, expect there to be less buyers.

    The spring/summer is historically the time of year when most people want to be buying/selling Real Estate.

    Also there are plenty of forecasted expansions poised to take effect which might bring in workers who may chose to buy rather than Rent.

    In summation, there are major factors pulling the market in opposite directions. We expect your property value to remain fairly stable. through the next 6 months or so.

    If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us directly – michael@realtykings – 780-598-7463

    Thanks and a Happy New Year to you Nemanja.

  3. A quick recap for you Nemanja, 6 properties in Eagle Ridge – 2 Bedroom, 1,188 square foot units, have sold since the New Year.

    Average Listing Price : $419,450.00
    Average Selling Price : $413,666.67
    Average Days on Market : 176

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